I would say I don't expect 6yos to run new tops (certain turf horses excepted, and even then, I don't EXPECT it, but it happens sometimes). Fourteen starts means something is wrong. I don't know if Legislature is going to win, but I would bet you almost anything that he will NOT run a new top. I hate to say this without looking at the sheet, but going by your description I would probably be willing to bet he won't pair up either. He'll probably run worse than he did last out (of course the Hushion angle is a loose end).

The way I would look at it is, he's 50% to win the race (I accept your proposition and your analysis), and if he wins, I get 5/2. If he loses I get nothing. If this is the best proposition available I have to force myself to wait, since I'm interested in horse racing to get odds that are SUBSTANTIALLY better than I get at blackjack (3/2).

Hey take a swing! It's only money. I've done worse. All this logic gives me a headache sometimes.

Good luck.

HP