Re: Cnl 7/16: The Virginia Oaks (504 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: July 14, 2005 10:33AM
Michael,
At first glance, doesn't look like a deep race to me.
I believe that one of three will win, Rich In Spirit, Dynamist and Masseuse, in that order.
Rich in Spirit is the fastest coming in, but at the weights, she is less than a point faster than Dynamist and about 1 point faster than Masseuse.
i think there is good reason to believe that BOTH Masseuse and Dynamist are better bets to improve in this race.
Rich In Spirit has already had 7 turf starts and has established form on turf. SHe has improved 5 points from her 2 year old top and has reached what looks to me like a plateau around the "5" level. Not a bad level, but I don't see a move forward.
Dynamist has only improved 2 points from her 2 year old top, which I guess could be a negative thing, but I think she has excuses for her races this year. SHe bobbled in the race at Pimlico, then she came 3rd in a "key race" at Belmont, where the race was MUCH BETTER than a nw1. Who's Cozy is a horse with a future and Dream Lady has come back to jog in an allowance race since then. And for those that believe in such things, she ran against a speed bias that day on the turf course. Dickinson goes back to Johnny V here and I think the horse is ready to move forward. Since she is almost co-fastest at the weights, that makes her a possible play at 5-1 ML, versus the 7-5 ML Rich in Spirit.
Masseuse is also very interesting. As you mentioned, the family is impressive, but the horse has also only had a few starts on turf and to me has room to improve. Two back, she waited on the rail very professionally and then shot like a cannon when the opening arrived. The last one was against a field that was more impressive than the class suggests. She ran very well and wasn't bothered at all by a loose horse in the stretch, even digging in and trying to run down the loose horse, despite the jockey easing up on her, knowing the race was won. Sheis also potential value at 6-1 ML and should be able to save ground from the rail.
For me, at expected odds, I play against Rich In Spirit and take one of the other two for a win bet, at 5-1 or better.
Forget about your love for Stevens, Michael D, you won't get value on Rich in Spirit!! :)