I understand the thinking. Personally, I don't have a problem with crapshoots. If the horses are really that close in probability of winning, then all the ones going off at much longer odds are good value even if I can't seperate them. In this case I thought I had a pretty good guage on the ability of the horses below Sun King based on back trips, WO's and other things. I guess the key was what probability to assign to Sun King from the 14 post in this field because he looked clearly best if he fired his best race and got a good trip. Obviously since I didn't use him I assigned a probability of a very tough trip or a sub par performance at greater than his odds suggested. Maybe I was wrong about that because I believe he ran a new peak. That's something I considered a very low probability event because he got pretty easy trips in both of his comeback races.







Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/06/2005 12:47PM by classhandicapper.