A couple of quick comments.

First, I totally agree with SoCal that looking at "box scores" is a mistake if you have accurate figures to work with. Figures represent ability and performance, the other represents accomplishment, and will in turn be reflected on the tote board. The trick is to find situations where the two are in conflict, and the odds, in simplest terms, are wrong. That's the basis for not only betting horses, but buying them with success.

Second, about Leroy. Given how often grass horses run close to their tops, I'm sure the others did not all run "X"'s, meaning it will turn out Leroy ran a big new top. But here's the thing-- there was an argument made here that his winning record meant he maybe could have run faster in those races, won by more if he had to. So now all you have to explain to me is why he won by 8 this time. Did he have to?

He ran a new top. It happens. Sometimes by a 3/5 shot, sometimes by a 35-1 shot.