TGJB,

"First, I totally agree with SoCal that looking at "box scores" is a mistake if you have accurate figures to work with. Figures represent ability and performance, the other represents accomplishment, and will in turn be reflected on the tote board."

To be clear again, I am also saying that the box score measures accompishment. However, I am adding that accomplishment is a very basic way of measuring intangibles that are NOT reflected in speed figures alone. A better way is to actually watch the horses in action and see what abilities they possess, but that isn't all that easy and sometimes you learn things about a horse after the fact.

I have been extremely clear over and over that I think intangibles seperate horses that are otherwise "VERY CLOSE" in speed figures. I don't know what Leroy's speed figure will be for this race (probably a new top?), but if it's a big new top it's entirely unrelated to what I am arguing. I am arguing that he was way more likely to fire a big race, get perfect position, overcome a "little" trouble if it occurred, outgame these other horses in a close finish, and find that "little extra" if he needed it etc... than the other way around despite similar figures. I believe that's the case because he's a better horse and posseses more of the intangibles of quality than his opponents and I believe those qualities are tough to measure, but they are "reflected" in the boxscore.

Are you saying that you believe horses with equal speed figures don't possess varying degrees of acceleration, stamina, competitiveness, gameness, versatility, early speed, late speed, etc.. that in turn can lead to varying levels of accomplishment that ultimatly wind up being reflected in the box score?

By implication are you also saying that among professional athletes some don't possess intangibles that allow greater accomplishment.

Given equal ERAs, are all pictchers equally lilkely to pitch well in the 7th game of the world series or do some handle the pressure and moment better?

Given equal free throw percentages, are all basketball players equally likely to hit both free throws with no time on the clock to tie the game and force an overtime in the NBA finals.

Given equal teams and quarterback accuracy during the season and just enough time for one more drive are all quarterbacks equally likely to lead their team to that touchdown?

Do players like Michael Jordan, Joe Montana, Reggie Jackson, Tiger Woods, etc... have just a little bit extra in the tank that they can call on when the game is on the line?

IMHO, the answers are NO, NO, NO, and YES!

One can see these qualities by actually watching the players/horses over time (which I suggested is the best way to do it), but accomplishment is also often very reflective of those intangibles in a very basic way. IMO, ignoring those intangibles is an obvious error. Measuring them by observation is best.








Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 09/19/2005 06:19PM by classhandicapper.