congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hello Michael,
>
> I've tried on this board several times to get the
> posters to discuss handicapping and horses, but it
> never happens. It's pretty much a gossip board
> where evrybody is wondering what the ROTW is. How
> about the race of the day or the horse of the
> week.

Sincerely, I'm not sure what there is to discuss.

Thorograph includes a vast statistical data base regarding what a horse has done after a particular effort. The key concepts are Top, Pair, Off and X. The probability is mathimatical and then you assign a projected figure for the race. You do it for all the entered animals, factoring weight change, post position and Figures already earned. The contenders become self evident. Certain patterns are encompassed in this analysis. The 0-2-X among them. A key element to my mind that is not reduced to statistics is distance. Varying distances will many times result in differnt efforts because horses are not machines and have differing distance aptitude. In other words who really expects Lost in the Fog to win at the Derby distance in top class? Or more accurately stated, who expects Lost in the Fog to Pair his 6 furlong figures at 10 furlongs?

Clearly the forging pattern is one of the very best. Still, the forge has to be factored with the ability level of the animals in the race under review. In that regard you have to factor the "Figure Spread". Is a 1 or even a 2 point Past Performance figure advantage significant enough to win? Often its not. Odds will always play a role.

What precisely do those wanting to discuss patterns want to hear? Ask it, Alan will answer.






Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/27/2006 12:03PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.