Re: Drugs/Two derby Preps/DW Lukas/ParaneckStables (659 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: March 27, 2006 12:07PM
David, Conga, Bobphilo, Nc "the Jesuit" Tony, Michael D:
I am as guilty as anyone of posting "gossipy", verbose and sometimes tedious pieces concerning the sport/business I love, and am guilty of starting some threads which have gotten way out of hand. Music, politics and travel have all become intertwined in racing threads at various times, and I have said at various times the board can be both educational and entertaining.
But instead of bemoaning the lack of threads concerning TG methodology and philosophy, why not start one yourself?
I have quite a few questions regarding using the TGs to handicap races, and welcome a response from any rational poster and/or Jerry or Alan.
On the Ragboard, questions are usually directed to Len, and his answers tend not to be the subject of debate. Almost like the old when EF Hutton talks, everybody listens ad campaign. On the TG board, statements by TGA or TGJ tend to be the starting point of the debate, not the final word. (Len actually recently made a fascinating post where he stated his belief that his confidence level in numbers/ patterns was higher in classier races, simply because better horses tend to be sounder and more formful. It got me to thinking about when are races so cheap (and runners so inconsistent) that any handicapping tool (TGs, Rags, Form) is rendered ineffective).
IMO a big problem now is that everyone wants to talk Derby, and each year the crop of Derby prospects tends to be more lightly raced meaning that many runners have not raced enough to establish patterns as we know them. Discreet Cat (3 lifetime races) is ranked 5th on Ed Fountaine's Derby Dozen; Strong Contender (2 lifetime races) is ranked 9th. How much of a pattern have these lightly raced animals established?
As I have previously stated, a lot of common sense handicapping knowledge/ theory becomes diluted when it comes to the Derby. (A) We are not accustomed to handicapping 20 horse fields where (B) most of the 20 horses are not on the day of the Derby prepared to race 10 "marks". Makes it more of a crapshoot than your average race, no?
Comments?