I throw an additional variable in the mix, I think in many cases a horses running style has something to do with his/her ability to string together good numbers. There are many ways of judging this, but I like the BRIS pace figures that show what part of the race the horse is doing it's fastest running. The thesis is, simply stated, off the pace runners that close are usually more consistent than on the pace runners. Ragozin makes reference to this in his book, I think.

There has been a great deal of talk about those 2yr old horses who have run a sub-6 not making it, but in most of the cases I can think of, these are all horses who tend to run the fastest part of their race (according to BRIS) in the front or middle part. Some for-instances are Balto Star, High Yield, Favorite Trick (I'm sure I'm forgetting many others). It appears to me that horses that run fast in the early/middle seem more likely to wear out, have erratic patterns, and not appreciate the stretch in distance to 1 1/4 miles.

This is the reason I don't like Came Home or Siphonic to win the KY Derby this year. They are near-the-lead types whose running style and previous BRIS pace figures suggest they will have enough left in the strectch.

Repent is quite different from most of the other horses who have run sub-6s as two year olds. His BRIS pace figures are dramatically higher in the last part of each race. For this reason (along with his performace so far) I think Repent has a great shot at beating the sub-6 jinx this year.

Last year, there were 2 nice horses to play with higher-back end BRIS pace figures that had fast thorograph figures to run back to. Monarchos and Invisible Ink.

As Mall was so kind to mention, I have yet to see Request for Parole, don't know his thorograph or BRIS figures, so I have no idea where he fits into this mix. Nor have I seen many of the runners in the Florida Derby. Hopefully the picture will get a little clearer after the FLDerby and Sprial and we'll see if there is any competition for Repent. I do still like EasyfromtheGG's line, but I think he benefitted from a severe rail bias and it made yesterdays race look better than it actually was. His BRIS figures were borderline going in, but after being close to the front yesterday, I don't think hes going to have the right running style to expect improvement at 1 1/4 miles.