Me and 1,000's of others who are stupid enough to think we can reasonably predict the Derby each year and pour the money into the race, wish there was a CONSISTENT reliable Derby handicapping method. There simply isn't.

These are horses who defy your logic and aren't on your list:

Smarty Jones
War Emblem
Charismatic
Lion Heart (2nd)
Empire Maker (2nd)
Menifee (2nd)

The above horses I mention are just case studies from the last 7 or so years that won or ran huge in their last prep. But I hear what you're saying.

TGJB's 2 and 3 year old colt methodology coming into the Derby is a reliable, sound handicapping system but like most others is only good for approx. 20% success...

I have had solid opinions on the last 10 derbies going in using a variety of different variables and handicapping tools. Most turned out to be dead wrong.

The ones I was right about turned out to be:
Real Quiet (2nd in his last prep)
Monarchos (2nd in his last prep)

However - based on this year's crop of animals and having seen all of the Derby preps this season and closely watching them on video, I can say the most impressive looking horses and the fastest figurewise are:

Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint

I am very confident one or both will be in the Derby Super...

Best of luck! All of this babbling is what makes the Derby the greatest race in America and the world for my money