Tony Wrote:
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>
> Horses do not show a line 8 7 7 1 then pair IT
> DOES NOT HAPPEN
>


Actually, it does happen. Take a look at War Emblems 2002 sheet in the Archives. he ran almost that exact line and then paired his Top in his next race. That race wasn't the Kentucky Derby, but is that dispositive? Thereafter, Baffert acquired him and he improved 1.5 points on that top. Speed horse, trainer change to Baffert. Any similarities?

Lets look closer at some of those horses from last year that were played to bounce off career tops in their race prior to the Derby.

Bellamy Road...Did he bounce or was he unsuited for a pace battle at 10 poles? He hasn't been running, but does that mean on Derby day fatigue kept him from pairing his Wood effort?

Bandini.......Injured in the Derby (or leading up to it) but has he come back to run well, though not up to his Blue Grass. Word is that he's pointing to the Met Mile. Was he really a 10 mark horse?

Afleet Alex...beaten a length, would he have regressed if he'd caught a better part of the track or not been sick for the Rebel. In other words was Bounce the dispositive factor?

Greeley's Galaxy ...obviously has never come back to his huge Illinois Derby number. Of the four, I make him the Bounce never come back poster boy.

Personally, I don't think you can get overly fixated upon the bounce theory even in the Derby. I may play one small ticket with bounce projected, but I'm going to bet the best horses conditionally advantaged and barring the unforeseen, my guess is they run their race.

I'm assumming the bounce candidates are:

Sinister Minister
Bob and John
Sweetnorthernsaint

We'll see