Based on EMPIRE MAKER's line as well as WAR EMBLEM, huge jumps followed by a pair-up race may bode well going into Kentucky.

Huge jumps going in??...well, you have to play the percentages and assume bounce, especially since the MOTOS will be all over the horse. Remember Baffert's INDIAN EXPRESS. Ran a huge Santa Anita Derby on the engine at 35-1 getting beat a head. Goes off 10-1 in FUNNY CIDE's Derby and the search party is still out there.

If you look at the past Derby horses from TG's archives, the one thing that sticks out is how frequently the 3yos run their tops in their 4th race. This includes Illinois Derby winners TEN MOST WANTED and GREELY's GALAXY who peaked in Illinois in their 4th start of the year and ran horribly in Kentucky. You can throw BUDDY GIL into that mix also.

Also, please take notice of the horses that do not race in either March or April.
Looks like if you are going to miss a full month, better to do it in January or February. Right, Michael Matz??


Good Luck,
Joe B.