Jerry,

Part II----

Belmont Race 1)

BB, Slew, D and Parl all made 3 to 5 point new tops? With Don jumpin 4 pts as well?

Belmont Race 2) IHG makes a 5 pt jump?

Belmont race 3) SG jumps 3 1/2 pts.
PP 1/4 off lt top
PC LT top off 1 1/2 pt move
Unbrid-1/4 pt off lt top
Expect- LT top
OT------LT top
Belmont race 4) OTs--bounces 4 off top
EM---bounces 4 off top
LB---bounces 1 1/2 off recent top
SAS-bounces 3 1/4 off last
Bejio---bounces 9
This was spill race so trouble may account for this sudden bounce trend versus the Big JUMPup trend early.

Belmont race 5) JC- 16 point move = to LT top--as good as Sarava's Belmont and potential BC material no doubt
GS--4 1/4 pt jump = to Sarava's Bel-- also- Breeders Cup material no doubt
EGP--new lifetime top
Jarf--4 1/2 pt. jump

Belmont race 5) EX---matched LT top
Ent--ditto
LC---jumped 2 1/2 pts.
SN 1/4 pt off lt top.

My immediate observation is that the sprints ( 1,2 and 6) all seem to be extremely fast races with even also rans jumping up (esp race 1).

The one turn routes (345) present a problem. Races 3 and 5 have a good part of the fields jumpin way up or hitting new tops. Race 4 has everyone falling apart. Maybe race 4 was slow (relatively). Don't have the times and I certainly did not hand time anything or measure the gate to the timer. (I did put my finger up in the wind to check direction though {gg}).
So, 12356 have participants running faster or as fast as they ever have??

Maybe instead of making a heavier variant (the 5 point adjustment you hinted at)for the BEL, you could have left that one where it was and reduced the variant for the first 5? From my way of thinking (however convoluted that may be) that would raise the number on Sarava a few points and eliminate all the big jump up and new top efforts I see in the early races.??

I don't reall PG's Bel # nor Easy Goer's but I have a hard time looking at a 2:29 and change and saying the trip and track were 3 seconds & 15 lengths off those efforts. Or even 2 and 10 or even 1 and 5.

What # did Big Red run when he stopped the time in 2:24. I recall the track was souped up that day (I was there and at every Bel since Canonero II) but .....Is Sarava in his category???
I guess I agree with MB's post. have a hard time buying this number. How did you come up with this variant??? And this number ???

Inquiring minds would like to know?