1) The split variant is already built into the figures you see. I took off much more from the sixth and eighth—in other words, if I did the whole day at the same variant, either the first 5 races would have gotten much BETTER figures, or the other 2 would have gotten much WORSE. Look at it again, carefully—do you want to give the early races BETTER figures? Your post indicates not. Incidentally, the first 5 are basically at the same variant—the only question was whether to split off the first (add 3), and since the ones who jumped were lightly raced, fresh Frankel, Kimmel and Mott fillies, I couldn’t justify it.

2) As I said the split came between the 5th and 6th. The grass races and Belmont (2 turns) have nothing to do with the question—the 6th and 8th are the only two 1 turn races after the split.

3) The track was slow early, and got slower. I didn’t take off any extra from the Belmont—in fact, if you did it using a basic speed chart, I added significantly compared to the previous 2 dirt races. If you are comparing to Ragozin, keep in mind their numbers run about 3 points higher.

4) In terms of your horse by horse—with all due respect, you don’t understand some of the basics about figure making. For example, the second race: you have a problem with the winner going forward from his last, but he didn’t even get back to his top. And in all the cases you mention, I can’t change those figures without changing the numbers for the rest of the horses in the race. And that’s not even addressing the surrounding races—for example, to make the 3rd and 4th “work out better” for you, I would have to add to the 3rd and take off from the 4th, making the track get slower, then faster.

Look at the day again in light of the above, and note what adding or subtracting would do to all the horses in the races. If you have any more questions, please post them.



TGJB