For what it's worth, here is an observation.

I see that Happily Unbridled is popular with the few who have posted about the ROTW and that is understandable. She has the strongest pattern of all the horses entered in the race and is thus an obvious horse for a sheets player to zero in on. Therein lies the problem.

One thing that I have definitely noticed while working with the sheets computer model is that horses like Happily Unbridled (very strong pattern but 2 or 3 points or more slower than several other horses entered in the race) tend to be way overbet. I am pretty sure you can attribute this to the influence of the sheets and condition handicappers and I would imagine that years ago (back in the days of TGJB's hot streak) that these horses used to go off at very generous odds and were probably even good plays. It looks like those days are long gone. Happily Unbridled has the best chance to move forward but, if you crunch all the numbers, she is still not that likely to win because there is an even better chance that at least one of the other faster horses (there are 5 significantly faster horses in this race) will run a good race and beat her even if she does improve.

That is why the model rates her as having only an outside shot to win, which is higher than her 10-1 morning line would imply.

Such horses tend to be better values in the show position because the strong patterns imply that they are unlikely to run a bad race. In fact, according to the model, Happily Unbridled has as good of a chance to run 3rd (actually finish exactly 3rd) as all but Critical Eye and Raging Fever.

An interesting contrast is that a horse that is almost as fast as all the others (maybe a point or so slower) with a fairly strong (but not real strong) pattern (e.g., Transcendental) often is underbet.

That is why building an odds-line is so helpful. The best bet is not always the most likely winner or the horse with the strongest pattern. Long term success hinges on betting the best "value" not on cashing the most tickets or being the sharpest "condition" handicapper.

Good luck to all.

Chris

P.S. I would imagine now that Happily Unbridled will win for fun at long odds. But keep in mind, that almost any time you cash a bet you are lucky (i.e., very few horses have a better than 50% chance to win a particular race). The results of a single race only tell you who happened to be lucky on that particular race. Good horseplayers can only be defined by long term success.