Bryan & Chris,

Bryan makes a great point about whether you would have willing to give a patron 5-1 on Raging Fever. The horse certainly seemed to be by far the logical favorite with a line of 0's and a one. I always look forward to you posting your line and admire the work. I think there may be variables that you weight too heavily. The Derby is an excellent example - you took the unorthodox position of penalizing horses for early speed. If you had left the speed bias out you would have had War Emblem as a much bigger overlay.

Your points about line vs pure fast numbers is dead on. A horse with a bad looking line that has run 3 ones and two x's is much more likely to win a race then a horse with a 6,4,2 or a 5,5,3,3,2 pattern (last number is most recent number in my example). I usually only improve horses when there is a clear reason (i.e., a horse running for the third time in a maiden that has a line that says poor start, hustled to lead, angled in and tired last furlong). I guess what I'm saying is that I love the model and wish I was smart enough and industrious enough to do one of my own but since that won't happen I would like to know a little more about some of the variables and how you weight them.

Thanks,

Tegger