Good discussion, I struggle with these constant dilemmas as well. Seems to me that the so-called "hot" money (FTS that are low that DON't have good stats) is more effective at some tracks than others. At CD for example I pay special attention to the board in the races riddled w/FTS. A couple of weeks ago I noticed a 6YO gelding FTS in a grass race at CD. It looked to be completely overmatched, but at 15 mins. to post he was 9-1. I used him in tri's & pick 3's and he drifted up to 34-1 and won the race. I think an important thing to remember is that a good deal of the "barn" money on any horse is bet early. My friends & I call it "beer money", the grooms & handlers are betting their beer money on the horses they know are live. I pay much more attention to what a horse opens than any last minute floods of money, which more often than not come from uninformed simulcast players.

Marc b