Obviously, the post position draw will affect final decisions, but some early thoughts on the breeders cup races (6 days out, and foaming at the mouth for the best day of action for horse players)

Juvenile Fillies - Looks like Mistical Plan won't get in, which is a shame, because she would have been very interesting on the stretchout, off the paired up "4's". Cash Included is formidable, but will be no value, so you have to take a shot against. The two that are most interesting to me are Appealing Sophie and Cotton Blossom. Sophie ran a bit of a clunker on the polytrack, but figuring out what to do with that race is a common theme for the Breeders Cup (how to treat strange Polytrack results). Speed has been awful at Keenland and Sophie's race before that was very big, albeit on a wet track, which she is well bred for. Cotton Blossom has that "3" to run back to and also comes out of the polytrack race. Her "3" is one of those results that allows you to get value if you believe the Thorograph figure, as the beyer is in the 70's, and the Tgraph figure has her the fastest here. At 15-1 or so, value.

Juvenile Colts - Not a real interesting race to me. Have to hope for the bounce off the big "1" from Scat Daddy. Do you want to believe Lukas when he says that Pegasus Wind missed a workout and was not cranked for his last race, in which he ran a '4". I expect the horse to improve off the stretchout. He is already one of the fastest and we know that Lukas used to be able get horses ready for the Breeders Cup. At 12-1 or so, Pegasus Wind looks like, especially if saving ground on the lead, assuming track os playing fair on BC day.

F & M Turf - Interesting test of "visual results" vs "figures". I can't help but think that Wait a While is the best horse, as I watched her three blowout turf wins, but her best fig is only a "3", which makes her vulnerable here. She will be bet hard and will vie with Ouija Board, who has raced against the best males in Europe. If you trust the figures, you can try to beat them both with Film MAker, at a price. Her "2" puts her faster than Wait A While and on par with Oiuja Board's best, and she figures a good price. Plus, she has run well in this race the last two years and should be overlooked in the win pool. The "value", if she gets a ground saving trip. Post position draw is critical for her.

Sprint - Very tough race (aren't all the BC races like that?). The first thing that jumps out is that Siren Lure is slow and is a play against in the exotics. Henny Hughes is very fast and figures short, but I don't know if he has faced the type of trip he will get here. They will be flying early and HH will be hard used to stalk the pace. Bordanaro, if 2nd choice, is probably not value, but PVal on speed is certainly tempting. The "value" plays are probably Commentator and Dubai Escapade. Not sure if Commentator will ever get back to those negative 5's, but the last race is probably a throwout. Have to worry if Commentator can stalk and pounce, as all his wins are "wire to wire". And the price may not be as good as it should be, because the horse has a "reputation". Don't like the fact that the connectionos of Dubai Escapade are still undecided about a start, but I have always like fillies in the sprint, as they have done well historically, when they 'figure', like Dubai Escapade does. Her tops of negative 3 are right on par with HH and she gets a little weight. Don't know if she can stalk a super hot pace and still finish and don't think she can outfoot Bordanor early, but at 15-1 or better, I will probably pay to find out. I am thinking Kelly's Landing at 40-1 is usable in the exotics as well. Has had excuses in several races and runs well at Churchill. Probably won't win, but would spice up exotics.

Mile - Trip always matters in this race. I guess Badge of Silver, if drawing a good post and making the lead, can be dangerous for Frankel off the long layoff. Gorella is probably the horse to beat off her latest, but she will need to save ground and get the right trip. Miesque's approval has that big figure at Monmouth and he may need more time to be able to run back to it, but at 30-1, is certainly usable. Aragorn is another who has been visually impressive and figures to be tough to beat if he gets the right trip, but as the favorite, with several as fast, I can't use the horse as a key. Good race to spread out in the pick 4.

Distaff - There has been enough time since Pool Land's big negative 2 at Keenland, such that the time could be right for a run back to it. Her last was good and she gets 7 weeks into this one, which gives her every right to be run her best. Her tactical speed is a plus, as she should save ground, near the lead. The price will be right as well, as I would expect 10-1 or better. The "value" play and a live longshot.

Turf - Not a good betting race IMO. Cacique and English Channel will be short and are fastest. My feeling is that Cacique is better at shorter distances, so English Channel is the most likely winner. I might use TH Approval with the horses that figure, to try and get value. Hurricane Run looks out of form, and another race on short rest, can't help. Should be first time in years that Euro's don't own this race. Go Deputy would contend, but 2 weeks rest makes him a throwout for me.

Classic - Tough to bet against Bernardin with any confidence. What a shame we will never see Discreet Cat against Bernardini, as that would be special. Lava Man is the obvious "throw out" in an attempt to get any value, but I doubt the horse goes off short, as I expect the horse to be 7-1 or higher. If Invasor goes higher than 6-1 or 7-1, which is unlikely, he might be worth a win bet, since his best is as good as Bernardini's best. The problem is that Bernardini gives every indication that he can run faster than he already has. Super Frolic has been lousy this year and not even sure if the horse will run in the turf race or here, but I am giving up on him, even in the superfecta (but I am still grateful he spiced up last year's superfecta!!) Premium Tap is probably a horse that can be in the Super and be value, although I would be surprised to see the horse win (actually shocked, is the right word).

Thoughts?

Jim