Re: Early Breeders Cup Thoughts/F-M Turf (789 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: October 30, 2006 12:38PM
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
>
> As always, a well thought out analysis. How have
> the referees and placekickers been
> treating you?
>
> The race I would like to focus on is the F&M
> Turf, which features Wait a While,
> who has been brilliant over a short career, and
> Ouija Board, who has been equally
> brilliant over an extended career.
>
> Wait a While-- has been untested in her 3 turf
> wins this year. The outcome of
> these 3 races was determined at the 3/8ths pole,
> and she was not really
> persevered with thereafter. The implication is
> that she could have run faster if
> she had needed to. (Where is Classhandicapper to
> debate the effect of the
> ease of her wins on the numbers she earned?) That
> being said, she takes a huge step up
> in class on Saturday and IMO is a possible winner,
> but offers little value at likely odds of
> 5/2. WAW has also never been tested on anything
> other than firm going.
>
> Ouija Board-- the oft repeated logic in past
> years, as racing has become
> increasingly global,has been that excursions to
> distant and exotic racing destinations tends to
> set horses
> back four to six months. On November 27 of 05, OB
> was in Tokyo.
> 2 weeks later, she raced in Hong Kong. On March 25
> of 06, she raced
> in Dubai. On April 23, she made a return visit to
> Hong Kong. All
> OB did after this extensive and unconventional
> Fall/ Winter campaign
> was to return for a Spring/ Summer campaign during
> which she came
> up against and held her own against the best turf
> males in Europe.
>
> In a post a couple of months back, Michael D
> mentioned that OB might be compromised
> by CD's tight turf turns,but OB prevailed at Lone
> Star 2 years back
> on a similar course.
>
> The big question for OB: How much is left in the
> tank for this, her likely last career start.
>
> Film Maker--yes she is as fast as any of these,
> but she has been outfinished by Honey Ryder
> twice and OB twice.Although she was wide in the
> Flower Bowl, and Honey Ryder saved ground,
> my impression was that FM had every chance to get
> by HR, but couldn't. Trainer Motion's
> runners always seem to show up on BC Day.
>
> Longshots: Two young lightly raced daughters of
> Muhtathir.(A) Mauralakana, a 3YO
> from Biancone who seemed to have a rough go in
> Keeneland's QE II from post 11
> and should love added ground. No number power, and
> hence a huge price. (B) Satwa
> Queen (improvement noted after six month
> freshening after Dubai races, posting
> TG 2 and TG 3 in last 2 Euro starts).
>
>
>
>
Richie,
yes, i remember our conversation a few months back.
i wrote:
"ouija board was awful impressive on wednesday, but i'm not so sure she towers above this group at the BC distance of 10f (especially running around the tight 7f oval at CD)."
the race was at 10f last year, and OB came up short. she won the 1 3/8m running at LS in '04. i forgot they shifted back to 1 3/8m in '06.
i stick to my original view that she doesn't tower over the field while playing the american version of turf racing, but OB has a better chance of winning on class alone with the extra furlong to work with.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/30/2006 12:39PM by Michael D..