Caro,

I'm aware of your critique. You're saying that many horses can't improve to a 3 or thereabouts. I am approaching this race the way Beyer does. On that surface at that track I don't think there was any negative to being wide from off the pace. Fully believing in factoring wide, there was a minimal wide factor at Keeneland on Bluegrass Day. You don't have to be a statistician to see that.

Lets Extrapolate:

Starting with the winner. A horse with a forging pattern coming off his first top matching race as a three year old. This horse benefitted from off the pace and he in all likelihood moved forward off the forge. He did win. I give him credit for a 2.5 or thereabouts.

Street Sense. To my eye he did not relish Poly the first time he saw it and he did not relish it yesterday. He was closer to the pace and ducking in about three times finished gamely. He was not his best and his finishes with a number like the winner in my book.

Zanjero. He was compromised by being inside in the lane in my opinion, but he did benefit from earlier lane placement. He was on a forge too if you score him on a 2.5 that forge ends, but the early wide helped him. {Later, he wasn't wide, but he did get near the rail late and he galloped out poorly from down in there.)

Teuflesberg....He gets a 3, but it was the best 3 ever awarded by a TFig counterfeiter. And on that track he may have run the best race. There was no theft on pace. Look at the last race on the card. The track became talcum powder. The race prior to the Bluegrass was so swift, (If properly timed), they may have not watered. Love to hear from Tgraph when the Beer truck made its rounds. I don't think hes a Derby Horse, but this is not a bad animal. He'll beat all of these but Street Sense next start, but that start should not be Churchill.

Great Hunter....Score him a 3 to a 3.5 or so.

Times Squared...that would bring him in at about a 4 or so. This is a million dollar horse that clearly had not run yet. If he returned to his top of an 8 that means the winners got home in about 6.5





Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC: If you think that Teuflesberg ran
> "significantly better" than a 4 or a 5 (let's say
> at least 2 points better), then you must think
> that a) the winner went forward at least 2 points,
> b) SS ran no worse than a zero, and perhaps paired
> his negative 2, c) Zanjero and Great Hunter no
> worse than paired their tops, and perhaps also ran
> new tops, and d) -- and here's the kicker -- Time
> Squared, who has one of the worst-looking lines of
> any horse to run the Blue Grass in recent history,
> went forward at least 4 points. Doesn't all that
> seem statistically improbable to you?



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2007 10:54AM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.