Re: Hey Jerry & Arkansas Derby (580 Views)
Posted by:
Caradoc (IP Logged)
Date: April 15, 2007 12:07PM
Chuck: I'm not saying horses can't improve by 3 points; I'm saying it's unlikely that all these horses ran as well as you think, given their past histories and simple probabilities.
It appears you are approaching the race as Beyer does because you are treating relative ground loss as irrelevant. In your view, the first three finishers all get the same figure, even though their trips were vastly different. Whatever their numbers, SS's figure has to be about 2 points better than Zanjero's.