Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (633 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: June 21, 2007 04:08PM
>Also, fkach can explain how adjusting for ground and weight with some Beyers would be double counting. Because while they don't use those variables, in effect they do in some cases, unintentionally.<
I didn't know you knew that I understood that. ;-)
It's an issue with Beyers and most other figures besides TG that I've never heard anyone address besides you (just now). I only realized it in the last couple of years after some confusion. I've had a few off line chats about it, but that's about it.
He sometimes builds in ground loss via the track variant on days when a lot of the winners and other close finishers just happened to have raced wide. It especially happens on bad rail days when almost all the winners etc... raced wide.
To simplify a little for non-figure makers:
Assume we have a horse that consistently runs a 100 Beyer with a ground saving trip.
Assume on a given day, lots of winning horses and other close finishers raced wide (including our 100 Beyer horse).
Instead of giving the horse a Beyer figure in the 90s because of the ground loss, he often gives it a 100 (because that's what it usually runs) effectively building the ground loss into the figure. Then when/if you add in the ground loss on top of that yourself you give it a FALSE new top.
This can cause problems for handicappers that add in ground loss by themselves. It can even cause problems for me because I can't measure what he did on any given day with any precision. It varies from day to day and track to track depending on the trips of the winners and other major horses on which he based his track variant.
I hope my explanation is clear. This isn't an easy problem to explain.
If you are using TG, you don't have to worry about it though because it's done correctly.
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.