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Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (633 Views)
Posted by: fkach (IP Logged)
Date: June 21, 2007 04:08PM

>Also, fkach can explain how adjusting for ground and weight with some Beyers would be double counting. Because while they don't use those variables, in effect they do in some cases, unintentionally.<

I didn't know you knew that I understood that. ;-)

It's an issue with Beyers and most other figures besides TG that I've never heard anyone address besides you (just now). I only realized it in the last couple of years after some confusion. I've had a few off line chats about it, but that's about it.

He sometimes builds in ground loss via the track variant on days when a lot of the winners and other close finishers just happened to have raced wide. It especially happens on bad rail days when almost all the winners etc... raced wide.

To simplify a little for non-figure makers:

Assume we have a horse that consistently runs a 100 Beyer with a ground saving trip.

Assume on a given day, lots of winning horses and other close finishers raced wide (including our 100 Beyer horse).

Instead of giving the horse a Beyer figure in the 90s because of the ground loss, he often gives it a 100 (because that's what it usually runs) effectively building the ground loss into the figure. Then when/if you add in the ground loss on top of that yourself you give it a FALSE new top.

This can cause problems for handicappers that add in ground loss by themselves. It can even cause problems for me because I can't measure what he did on any given day with any precision. It varies from day to day and track to track depending on the trips of the winners and other major horses on which he based his track variant.

I hope my explanation is clear. This isn't an easy problem to explain.

If you are using TG, you don't have to worry about it though because it's done correctly.



Subject Written By Posted
To JB - Number Stephen Foster (959 Views) milfordflash 06/20/2007 09:02PM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (676 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 06/21/2007 06:23AM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (740 Views) TGJB 06/21/2007 01:52PM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (633 Views) fkach 06/21/2007 04:08PM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (686 Views) TGJB 06/21/2007 04:36PM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (544 Views) fkach 06/21/2007 05:00PM
Never Dispense with Mathematics (742 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 06/21/2007 09:08PM
Re: Never Dispense with Mathematics (551 Views) robert fischer 06/21/2007 09:24PM
Re: Never Dispense with Mathematics (706 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 06/21/2007 09:34PM
Re: Never Dispense with Mathematics (540 Views) streetbull 06/21/2007 10:17PM
Re: Never Dispense with Mathematics (524 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 06/22/2007 06:20AM
Re: Never Dispense with Mathematics (550 Views) miff 06/22/2007 10:58AM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (488 Views) milfordflash 06/22/2007 09:12AM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (643 Views) TGJB 06/22/2007 01:12PM
Re: To JB - Number Stephen Foster (441 Views) beyerguy 07/03/2007 07:07AM


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