BC Questions and Comments

1) Questions:

a)La Traviata in the BC Sprint?

Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Desert Stormer...
It would be more fun to have her at a price in the big event than see her romp
against fillies and mares at a short price in the Friday race.

b)Sunriver back to dirt for BC Classic?

He was very good on the turf Saturday (seemed a bit rank and was pace
pressured the entire trip), but his sire already has one BC Classic winner
and of course he is brother to Ashado. Pedigree more suited to 1-1/4 on the
main than it is to 1-1/2 grassy? This move would certainly make a few old
school turf to dirt handicappers happy.

c)Which race does Hard Spun run in?

While the best fit might be the mile dirt race on Friday, owner Porter has
always been ambitious and thus HS could likely end up in the BC Classic.

2) Comments:

a)Langfuhr products "outrunning" Pedigree:

The Danzig stallion Langfuhr was a very classy runner in New York, winning
almost all of his races at 7/8s and one mile. Yet Langfuhr has produced 2
runners who will be logical contenders in longer BC events: Lawyer Ron in the 1-
1/4 Classic and Jambalaya in the 1-1/2 mile John Deere Turf. And without
disclosing proprietary information, Jambalaya has certainly "outrun his
pedigree" in that the sons and daughters of Langfuhr have not fared well,in
general,on the lawn according to TGI numbers for Langfuhr.

b) Pre-emptive Strike -- BC Trainer Win Percentages:

Many many BC posts on this board will mention the following statistic: Todd
Pletcher, 41 BC starters, 2 winners. With the help of the excellent NTRA BC
website, here are the strike rates of trainers with over 20 BC starters:

Richard Mandella 21%
Shug McGaughey 18%
Neil Drysdale 16%
Ron McAnally 15%
D Wayne Lukas 13%
Sir Michael Stoute 12%
William Mott 11%
Andre Fabre 10%
Aidan OBrien 08%
Bob Baffert 07%
Saeed bin Suroor 07%
Bobby Frankel 06%
Todd Pletcher 05%
Nick Zito 03%

Note: percentages were not given at NTRA site. These percentages the result of
what Jethro Bodine used to call "ciphering".