richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BC Questions and Comments
>
> 1) Questions:
>
> a)La Traviata in the BC Sprint?
>
> Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Desert Stormer...
> It would be more fun to have her at a price in the
> big event than see her romp
> against fillies and mares at a short price in the
> Friday race.

I know it's out of fashion, but the mares above had quite a bit more seasoning when they tried the boys at 3/4. She is a VERY nice, though. I wouldn't want her "head jerked off" yet, and I would give her absolutely no chance to win at this point in her life. The oval favors her though, for sure, at least before they draw.
>
> b)Sunriver back to dirt for BC Classic?
>
> He was very good on the turf Saturday (seemed a
> bit rank and was pace
> pressured the entire trip), but his sire already
> has one BC Classic winner
> and of course he is brother to Ashado. Pedigree
> more suited to 1-1/4 on the
> main than it is to 1-1/2 grassy? This move would
> certainly make a few old
> school turf to dirt handicappers happy.

This would make me very happy, as I think that he should be "under carriage" sound and "breathing" due to grass experience at distance. I like his action and this makes sense to me.

> c)Which race does Hard Spun run in?
>
> While the best fit might be the mile dirt race on
> Friday, owner Porter has
> always been ambitious and thus HS could likely end
> up in the BC Classic.

It would seem to me that he could win the sprint, and has no chance in the Classic. I was impressed when he "caught his breath" against First Defence.
But they won't do that. His center of gravity is a little high for MTH two turns.
See your comments for speculation about what they will do - think you are correct.
He might be why Ron would have trouble.

> 2) Comments:
>
> a)Langfuhr products "outrunning" Pedigree:
>
> The Danzig stallion Langfuhr was a very classy
> runner in New York, winning
> almost all of his races at 7/8s and one mile. Yet
> Langfuhr has produced 2
> runners who will be logical contenders in longer
> BC events: Lawyer Ron in the 1-
> 1/4 Classic and Jambalaya in the 1-1/2 mile John
> Deere Turf. And without
> disclosing proprietary information, Jambalaya has
> certainly "outrun his
> pedigree" in that the sons and daughters of
> Langfuhr have not fared well,in
> general,on the lawn according to TGI numbers for
> Langfuhr.
>
> b) Pre-emptive Strike -- BC Trainer Win
> Percentages:
>
> Many many BC posts on this board will mention the
> following statistic: Todd
> Pletcher, 41 BC starters, 2 winners. With the help
> of the excellent NTRA BC
> website, here are the strike rates of trainers
> with over 20 BC starters:
>
> Richard Mandella 21%
> Shug McGaughey 18%
> Neil Drysdale 16%
> Ron McAnally 15%
> D Wayne Lukas 13%
> Sir Michael Stoute 12%
> William Mott 11%
> Andre Fabre 10%
> Aidan OBrien 08%
> Bob Baffert 07%
> Saeed bin Suroor 07%
> Bobby Frankel 06%
> Todd Pletcher 05%
> Nick Zito 03%
>
> Note: percentages were not given at NTRA site.
> These percentages the result of
> what Jethro Bodine used to call "ciphering".

I like that verb - what I think is kind of funny is that in not winning these "Classic" races, keeping horses "towards the front", winning the preps, TAP makes a zillion dollars a year, for years, and he is still a kid. Richard Mandella might not want to be Todd, but he would probably trade check books. Elegance and dough are not always parallel.

PS: Distored Humor was best at 7/8ths too. However for "Ron" to win at 10f, there has to be no serious 10f horse in the race, and I think Street Sense is a real 10f horse. I would need to see somebody to deal with Ron early so he doesn't get a 48 half. I always thought he was a very good 9f horse, dope/Pletcher/everything else aside. He looked great last year in Hot Springs, I thought. And I did think he just needed to relax, but I never thought he could relax into a mile and a quarter unless there was nobody else in the race. Of course, I thought that "tractability" amd tactical speed wasn't enough for Smarty Jones, either, so what do I know.