Re: ROTW-scott lake (438 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: September 22, 2007 10:44AM
I have made this point about Scott Lake. His "runs based" v "figure based"
stats are quite, well, disparate.
His "overall" stat is a good place to start: wins 23% (9269 starts), but off of
a 5,353 start figure based sample, Lake's runners have posted 10% tops, 24%
pairs, 26% offs, and 40% Xs. At Philly, Lake wins 23% of his starts (sample
size 2456), yet his figure based distribution at Pha (1458) is 12/26/26/37.
TAPs stats show less disparity: Overall,25% wins in last 4885 starts, with a
figure based distribution (2929) of 17/31/26/26. Mildly surprising that TAP
is able to win 25% of the time with slightly less than 50% of his runners
posting a top or a pair? Or is it wrong for one to expect more harmony in these
two sets of stats?
I'll ask the question again: High win %, relatively few runners throwing in top
performances....? Superior placement of entries by said trainer? Or is it a
statistical aberration?
Simple question: Why can't run based and figure based stats be derived from
same sample?
Gotta go golf. Best of luck, wagering warriors.