Re: ROTW-scott lake (377 Views)
Posted by:
stillinger (IP Logged)
Date: September 22, 2007 04:45PM
Off the top of my head, Lake does make money placing,
and he claims horses that are past their tops, and he
sends them, so when they lose, they are X's?
richiebee Wrote:
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> I have made this point about Scott Lake. His "runs
> based" v "figure based"
> stats are quite, well, disparate.
>
> His "overall" stat is a good place to start: wins
> 23% (9269 starts), but off of
> a 5,353 start figure based sample, Lake's runners
> have posted 10% tops, 24%
> pairs, 26% offs, and 40% Xs. At Philly, Lake wins
> 23% of his starts (sample
> size 2456), yet his figure based distribution at
> Pha (1458) is 12/26/26/37.
>
> TAPs stats show less disparity: Overall,25% wins
> in last 4885 starts, with a
> figure based distribution (2929) of 17/31/26/26.
> Mildly surprising that TAP
> is able to win 25% of the time with slightly less
> than 50% of his runners
> posting a top or a pair? Or is it wrong for one to
> expect more harmony in these
> two sets of stats?
>
> I'll ask the question again: High win %,
> relatively few runners throwing in top
> performances....? Superior placement of entries by
> said trainer? Or is it a
> statistical aberration?
>
> Simple question: Why can't run based and figure
> based stats be derived from
> same sample?
>
> Gotta go golf. Best of luck, wagering warriors.