I'm more interested in the thought process of whoever provided the analysis.

Start with a horse that was racing for the 7th time in ~13 weeks, coming off an "X" in his last, and moving way up in class for a trainer that just doesn't win much at Kee. Thoro-Pattern had this one at 66% to run "off" or "X". His lone start at Keeneland in the spring was unimpressive, so nothing there.

There were more than a few others in here with better looking sheets -- how were acceptable odds of "5-1 or more" arrived at for this horse, as indicated in the analysis? This was a horse that I would have dismissed for the win, and only maybe would I have used him underneath.

Sure, he wasn't impossible, but it seems like the prospect of getting around the 30-1 ML odds was the only thing that made this one so attractive. If that's not it...what am I missing?