Re: Yeeeeoooowwww (510 Views)
Posted by:
TGnick (IP Logged)
Date: October 11, 2007 03:26PM
Hi Rick B.,
You're right, 30-1 morning line made this horse attractive; however, what keyed me to this horse was its pattern. I don't look at odds until after I identify the contenders. Five Star Thief was one of two contenders in the race. He has the best number based on recent form. Getting back to the 2.5 in July and then returning to that number quickly made this a new horse in my thinking. The bounce was reasonable; I often play this pattern to bounce back to its previous number, or at least within a point or two. Again, note that I was looking for the horse to win the race, based on recent form. 5-1 worked in an acceptable overlay since I considered 2-1 a fair bet in this case. Other than City Number, the rest of the field looked to me to be too slow, off form, or ready to bounce off tops.
TGnick