Michael,

Why do you use LP from a 10f race to assess a horse's chances at 10f? In other words, how does a late fraction from a 10f race tell you more about his 10f ability than his entire 10f performance (including final time) does?

Separately, I thought your keep-in-the-clear post Sunday was quite good. Saving ground is important, and having ground loss in the figures is invaluable, but other things matter too. If we accept that pace matters, we must also accept that saving ground behind horses can put riders in positions where they are at the mercy of the horses in front of them. This can lead to energy-wasting trips. It can also lead to being seventh on the rail behind fractions that are so slow that it's much better to be 3w on the lead, which is not to say that being 3w on the lead isn't two lengths worse per turn than being 1w on the lead.