Alydar,
momentum vs ground loss...... you can say what you want about Bailey, but the reason why the guy became one of the top two or three jockeys ever was because he understood that saving ground was important, but he also knew that in order to win the big one, your horse better have the chance to run fast for a good part of the race (which means not stuck in behind other horses). Sounds simplistic, and even a bit stupid, but it's the truth....... as for the late pace #'s, it's an interesting topic that needs some time..... check out the board tomorrow.