Alydar,
The last ten winners of the Classic (aside from Cat Thief, aided by the GP strip) have had an enormous amount of stamina. Winners like Tiznow, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Concern, and AP Indy all showed a ton of heart down the stretch in their previous races. It is tough to say why the Mr. Prospector speed types have faded down the stretch in the Classic (while winning more than half of the Derby runnings over the same period), but the results are enough to scare me away from the horses who have shown a tendency to slow down late in their races. With three speed types expected to run (all well rested, all saddled with aggressive jocks), I expect a decent pace, and I will focus on the horses who can stalk and finish well. As of now, the horse who I think has the best chance of stalking close to or on a strong pace, and still finishing well is MD'o. The horses I like stalking off the pace and finishing strong are possibly Macho Uno, Evening Attire, and maybe one of the foreign horses. If A horse like Harlan's Holiday or War Emblem wins (ie. the horses who have struggled at the end of their longer races) I will lose. No rocket science here, just a theory that will be proven right or wrong on the 26th.