Weekend Stakes -- Ragozin View (1772 Views)
Posted by:
David Patent (IP Logged)
Date: October 04, 2002 05:48PM
Not a lot to get excited about. Most of the 10 weekend stake races at Bel, Kee, and SA are 2-3 horse affairs with the morning line favorites stickouts on the Sheets.
Belmont
Frizette:
Two-horse race. If Santa Catarina goes off at 3:1 or higher she's worth a bet. Storm Flag Flying ran a huge first race but bounced 6 points in last. I would project a move forward but not nearly back to her first number. Santa Catarina hasn't been long yet but has good breeding and Baffert is good on the stretch-out. Her last sprint -- a 4 pt. bounce from her top --was faster than SFF's win in the Matron so a move forward from her last probably puts her in the winner's circle.
Kelso:
Very competitive race. No pattern or number stickouts. Top four horses on number/pattern are 4 of the 5 top morning line horses -- Patrol, Baptize, Forbidden Apple, and Volponi. I'm willing to go against FA given the weight he is carrying and a pretty big number in last but not sure the other contenders will be any value.
Beldame:
Summer Colony has top two numbers in the field but figures to bounce 2-3 points off of her pair up top in last. Minister's Baby has one fast number 2 back. Imperial Gesture has run two very fast numbers, though slower than SC's tops. Looks o.k. to pair up or maybe move forward; unfortunately, she's the 8:5 second choice. Mandy's Gold also looks o.k. in here and a pair up or move forward puts her right there. If she's 4:1 or better, worth a play.
Champagne:
Ugh. Icecoldbeeratreds (a great name or a terrible name depending on your perspective), should win if he can come near his top sprint efforts. Pretty Wild has to bounce significantly off his last but if he doesn't he has a shot. There is no way that ICBAR is going to be 7:2 but if he is he's the play in the race.
Keeneland: Yawn.
Phoenix Gold Cup
Xtra Heat, is giving a lot of weight. Her last race was a big drop-off from her previous although she did win easily. She is vulnerable, possibly to Binthebest but short field will likely yield no value.
Lane's End Futurity
Sky Mesa's last was very fast but he will almost certainly bounce significantly off of it. Other horses' tops are all 3-4 points slower or more and none have patterns that get me too excited about their propensity to even pair up. Truckle Feature is probably the most likely winner but can't see him being a price.
Santa Anita:
Ancient Title
Swept Overboard is the key. Ran 5 huge races on the dirt last year. Has been off since his negative number top in last. Can't see him running back to where he was last year in this first start -- vulnerable. Other horses are all puzzlers, most seem to be tailing off or coming off big races. Kalookan Queen, the filly, has the best pattern. Crafty CT is competitive as well with no real knocks but won't be a price.
Norfolk
No clue here. Kafwain, Bull Market and Listen Indy are the fastest but no price likely here.
B.C. Mile
I'm tossing Congaree. He has tailed off badly since his first effor this year. His pattern could be read as circling back to a good number but he's no price and there are other faster horses who have proven their numbers on the grass. Congaree will save ground on the rail but gives 4 lbs. to the field which almost negates that advantage. I'm leaning toward using Nicobar, who has a nice pattern and a small move forward in last. The horse with the fastest turf numbers is Spineless Jellyfish and, if you toss his efforts over 1 mile, has a lot of very fast efforts that win this easily. Has had enough time since his last strong effort two back. D'Wildcat has two decent turf efforts and a nice 1 pt. move forward in his last. You can even make a case for using Night Patrol if you toss his last effort at Delaware. Price will dictate the play here but race is playable if you are willing to toss Congaree.
Yellow Ribbon
I smell an upset possibly here but it's nothing to get too excited about. The top 2 picks are both fast but vulnerable to run poorly here. Golden Apples is coming off a 2 1/4 point top that she is almost sure to bounce 2 or more points off. Banks Hill obviously has some good numbers but has been shuttled from East Coast to the West in search of firm turf. I'm always leery of playing Europeans first time in California and horses who have had last minute changes to their agenda. Voodoo Dancer looks solid here but is unproven at 10f. The good news for her is that this is the race her connections are trying to win -- she is not B.C. bound. The only potential longshot with a prayer is Noches de Rosa who is 3-4 points slow off of her last but if finally getting a race at a longer distance, which she appears to relist. Third off a layoff with improving pattern make her a possibility at the right price.