Mall,

I didn't have any time Sunday to go to the RBR. It was 'birthday party Sunday' yesterday and we traipsed around town attending various parties for newly minted 2 and 3 y.o. -- none of them Derby contenders. If JB can repost the SA, KEE, and BEL cards from Saturday I would be most grateful.

As to the intimation of 'I know more than you do,' I agree with Alydar. You're a bit smug in your last post.

Here is what I do know about my ROI and the 'bounce' theory as I apply it when handicapping:

First, I don't play a horse to bounce just because he/she ran a top. I look for instances where 1) there is a horse with a shaky pattern who just ran a top, 2) an older, heavily exposed horse who just ran a top, or 3) a horse who, regardless of prior pattern, just ran a ridiculous number on an absolute scale.

My four biggest non-p6 scores have come when I have focused an a favorite that I believe will be off the board or out of the top two due to a severe bounce, including this year's Belmont, Belmont 1999 and a couple forgettable allowance races. My ROI in these races is very positive.

Of course sometimes I am wrong, but here is why playing the bounce theory makes sense. The crowd almost always significantly overbets a horse coming off a big effort in last. There seems to be an ingrained assumption in many bettors that a horse will generally repeat his last effort (assuming it was not excused by some misfortune or an off-track). So big numbers often create big overlays and underlays.

To take this last weekend as a case in point, however, projecting a bounce does not always lead to a big bet. The only races where I projected a big bounce by the favorite where I even bet the race were the Ancient Title -- which I hit big, The Champagne, which I hit little, and the Lane's End Futurity, which I whiffed. In the other races, I just didn't see enough value to justify a bet.

Do I know what % of the time I am right when I really stick my neck out against a horse? No. I wish I tracked my results that granularly. But I do have a general sense of the kinds of scenarios that play out well for me and those that don't. My challenge is to avoide more races containing the latter and focus more on the former. Projecting big bounces, esp. in big races, is definitely one of the former for me.