Re: Which We Know Why? (964 Views)
Posted by:
David G. Patent (IP Logged)
Date: October 06, 2002 04:24AM
Mall,
I base my bounce predictions on the horse's established level, if there is one, and with an eye toward the absolute number it ran and whether horses of a similar age and gender have been able to maintain those numbers in the past. Derby 1592 is right that 2 y.o. are the toughest to call but I'm loathe to play any 2 y.o. not to bounce if they ran a 5 or better in their last race (Ragozin scale, of course). That doesn't mean that they can't win but that kind of number is not the kind of figure off which you see many pair-ups or move-forwards.
We'll find out eventually what Summer Colony, Sky Mesa, and Golden Apples ran but I can guarantee you that both SC and SM bounced. Tougher call on GA. Her race was pretty paceless and they came home in :22 and change so her fig may not look that good.
As it turns out, per my pre-race fears, there were not a lot of betting opportunities in the 10 stake races, or the other races on the three cards. I didn't bet the Beldame but tossing SC and boxing the top two was a good bet. The Champagne exacta was good and hittable if you were willing to eliminate the favorite -- which I was. The Ancient Title turned out to be a very good betting race. Kalookan Queen at 9:2 was huge value and the exacta with Crafty C.T. paid a very healthy $41 for a $2 bet.
Even though I did not hit the 6th at SA it was very gratifying to see Congaree finish out of the money.