Bill,
Five horses in this race are going to take money: with a few speed types involved, and with Day aboard, look for Farda Amiga to take serious money, I don't think many people have given up on Summer Colony's two turn game, Take Charge Lady looks fast using any theory, and Bailey takes money period........ I have read about ten opinions on the race now, and not one person likes Azeri on top (including myself) ....... the odds will be higher than most think. I don't think your pick will take much money, just too many big names involved. If Mandy can handle the two turns though, you might have something there. Personally, I think TCL is the fastest and she gets the four lbs. I will use her. I can not give up on SC's two turn game without a bad two turn race. I will use her as well. Bailey...hmmmm.. a very, very reluctant toss here. Day has come flying too late a few times in this race, and I guess there is a good chance he does it again here, but I have bet FA in her three dirt races, and I think I have to stick with her in the Cup. As for Azeri, she is an obvious contender, but I think she will go off around 7-5, which is still too low for me. I will focus on TCL, SC, and FA, and let the track conditions determine my pick.