I tried to get a thread going on the ROTW a few weeks ago and it went nowhere. I thought I would try one more time. The Cigar Mile looks like a very interesting race with an unusually strong field for this time of year. The G1 mile brings together an intriguing mix of routers cutting back and sprinters stretching out and natural milers switching from turf to dirt after pointing toward the BC mile. Exactly the kind of race that can generate very different opinions from very good handicappers and, not suprisingly, I agree with most of the TG analysis but do have a few significantly different opinions.

It is important to note that if Bonapaw, Resolve, Congaree and Crafty C.T. all go, the pace is likely to be very hot, which needs to be factored into the analysis.

Here is a quick horse by horse look.

Bonapaw - I am a lot more negative on him than TG. He has never been able to handle a hot pace and run his top and he will see one tomorrow and he will have to try and carry his speed a mile. I don't like him at all.

Resolve - No chance.

Harlan's Holiday - I have always thought he was a middle distance horse. They tried to stretch him out to the classic distances this spring and failed and again this fall with the same results. Assuming that he is sound, he should improve with the cutback in distance and he has enough early foot to stay within striking range. I don't like his near-term pattern much but he would probably have a more impressive record if he were not a tweener and he does have a shot in here.

Crafty CT - The one front-runner that might be able to handle the pace. Still very iffy and is coming off a top and is a likely favorite. He has a shot but no value.

Congaree - Great play against. In fact, he has made several races very playable this year. This probably is his best distance and surface but he is still slow compared to the others and offers no value.

Aldebaran – I think the distance fits and that you can ignore his last in the BC Mile (Landseer falling left him no chance). The race should also setup for him and the extra distance will help (he has been sprinting most of the summer). If it were not for Swept Overboard's awesome performance this guy would have won the Met earlier this year. However he is the surprising morning line favorite so offers very little value.

Red Bullet - I have to agree with TG that he is a contender and has a good shot but 5/1 is probably just a little higher than fair value.

Windsor Castle – He looks like the real value in this race. I think he has about as good a shot as the other 4 main contenders (Red Bullet, Aldebaran, Crafty CT and Harlan's Holiday) and he is likely to be at much higher odds.

Griffinite – No chance.

Multiple Choice – Not impossible but hard to like.

In summary, Windsor Castle looks like the key with Red Bullet, Aldebaran, Crafty C.T. and Harlan's Holiday the horses most usable with him in the gimmicks.

Good luck to all.

Chris