Fall 1977 I started going to the track. Picking winners and cashing bets was difficult given the information at hand in those days. So I started reading, researching, trying to find a way, a handicapping method to employ which would make the money flow more of a two-way intercourse. Ainslie--freshman studies, Beyer--speed specialization, Quirin--statistics--applied handicapping.

Started working at TG in 92. Performance figures informing form cycles were like an alternative curriculum and philosophy, not the theory per se, that made sense, but the fervent belief, that they and they alone could provide the clearest solutions to the handicapping problems at hand.

Often discussing races JB would say to me, Alan your mind is cluttered with irrevelant thoughts--forget how the horse did in 30k company (he lost yet was being raised to 45k, etc.) or so he's off a layoff, look at what he did last time off the layoff, etc.

Plus I had a healthy degree of skepticism. I didn't really know him, yet I was suppose to bet based purely on figure theory. And frankly, why couldn't he perpetuate the theories he espoused. After all he made the figures. (And I had the advantage of getting TG for free.)

The point is that over the years I began to trust the numbers, and I say over the years. It takes time to let go of things learned and internalized over the course of many years.

Now this is not to say that figures are the be-all and end-all. They are not and never have been. Accurate figures on a graph do provide the most significant information concerning a horses' talent, ability and condition. Often these data points are solely sufficient to solve the handicapping equation at hand.

At other times, their weight, importance, is less significant which is why we append trainer,sire and jockey information. And by the way, we, TG, were the first to disseminate these types of data daily.

In a perfect world, horses would run to their figures all the time. But we know that doesn't happen. Form cycles are not static or perfectly predictable. Other factors, non-quantifable, often surface and prevail.

Nevertheless over the long run in this game, the figures prevail. The fastest horses
given the conditions at hand--weight and post (prospective ground loss or saved)--win much more than often than the slower ones. No surprises there, but you have to TRUST the figures.

This long-winded spiel is merely a preface to stating my agreement and disagreement to Chris' and Mall's take, respectively, on Resolve in the Cigar Mile, and Jerry's too for that matter.

Resolve has no figures good enough to win--he has to run a top and all the others have to throw stinkers. Resolve is much more likely to finish last than first, and I feel he can't be used at any odds.

I disagree with Chris concerning Bonapaw. Chris, you must use pace figures, because Bonapaw has put up negative figures after running some very fast, unadjusted, half splits. Whether he can perform equally well going 8 furlongs is to my mind the question he has to answer. But given his back figures and the timing, I think he's a strong contender, too.

Crafty CT is difficult to read. Horses don't bounce off negative figures the way they use to. So like Mall interprets, Crafty CT may have turned the corner, in which case, he's fast enough to contend and win.

Red Bullet is ouchy. A repeat of his last probably won't be good enough to win and even his top, given a wide trip, may fall short. And he could bounce too.

Harlan's Holiday's last was a stinker, but the only he's thrown in a year. I'm inclined to dismiss it and look for a much improved performance, perhaps a new top. I disagree with JB on this one, more in accord with Chris. But HH probably does need a new top to win, so whether he's value or not we won't find out until race time.

Windsor Castle looks to be value, if the ML holds. His top is fast enough to win, but he's only run it once. His other efforts aren't good enough.

Aldebaran is solid but suffers from the closer's plight--ground loss. Third and second is more likely.

Griffinite and Congaree are slow. Multiple Choice has to improve from an outside post.

Good luck.



TGAB