Interesting indeed, for a variety of reasons. Supposedly, Bonapaw's extraordinarily slow for him last work was designed in part so he would not neccessarily go for the lead in this race. I'm not sure this is his best distance, and he has had a fairly long campaign for a 6 yr old. Yet, he did throw in the neg 2.25 in his next to last in 2001.

Congaree is a need the lead type, but it seems he would have to be hard used to get it here. He's the one I see as not being able to handle the kind of fractions likely in this spot.

It's also not entirely clear to me based on his last 2 that Crafty CT needs or will go for the lead, though I think he might be able to clear this field if PVal was so inclined. Interesting, isn't it, that PVal passes up live mounts in $200k & $500k races at Hol to travel cross country to ride in a $350k race at Aqu. The connections must feel that they've turned the corner with Crafty, as this is his 4th race in a fairly short time for him, and the SA works are very impressive. Yet, I seem to recall stats along the lines that horses coming out of BC races are not a particularly good bet next time out.

I don't think it's entirely out of the question that Resolve goes for & gets the lead, and you can make a kinky handicapping kind of case that he might do more running than his nos. suggest. Whoever made the decision to claim this Az bred for $100k a couple of races after he was claimed for $50k must have seen something which convinced him that he could improve the horse. The 11/12 SA work may have given him hope that he was right, which led to the ship, followed by the impressive 6f work on the Bel training track. He'll get a little of my exotics play if he's 50-1 or higher.

Reportedly, this is Red Bullet's last race. Does that mean that Orseno will pull out all the stops on a horse which has been plagued with physical problems for much of his career, and if so, will that be enough to overcome a deep closing style which may be at something of a disadvantage at Aqu?

As always, the bottom line for me would be a comparison between my opinion and that of the betting public, and this is one of those races where it is very difficult if not impossible to predict what the final odds will actually be. As I see it, Crafty & Red have the highest percentage chances of winning, but whether their odds will be high enough to justify a bet remains to be seen.