Regarding the SA Derby: I like Easy Grades. He is lightly raced and his last may not be as big a jump as it seems given that the previous two were on the turf. Of the main contenders, he seems to be the most likely not to react and the best suited to the distance and pace. I do respect Mayokovsky though. He looks ouchy but very fast and a threat to wire the field.

Regarding the effect of big early 3yo figs: You point out two good exceptions last year with Monarchos and Invisible Ink but, prior to that, Thunder Gulch was about it. In past years, reacting to a 3yo effort prior to the Derby was normally not a positive sign so you have to wonder if last year was not jsut an anomaly.

Here is an updated excerpt from a post I made last year on this topic. As with all such similar guidelines, take it with a grain of salt.

Derby winners don't "bounce" - Not surprisingly, Derby winners tend to have consistently forward moving lines throughout their 3yo year prior to the Derby. 17 of the last 20 Derby winners did not "bounce" or "regress" after their first start as a 3yo. By this I mean that each start was either as good (if it is worse by less than a point, then consider that to be "as good") or better than any previous 3yo race. The only 3 Derby winners that "bounced" as 3yo’s prior to the Derby were Monarchos, Swale and Thunder Gulch. Note that these three all regressed in the race immediately prior to the Derby (with the bounce induced by a peak effort in their penultimate Derby preps) and then rebounded in the Derby. No horse has regressed in an even earlier 3yo effort and still gone on to win the Derby. Apparently, bouncing in early 3yo preps (with the one possible exception noted above) is a sign that a horse is unlikely to run a peak performance in the Derby.

Good luck to all.

Chris.