Chris, can't argue with any of your logic. DD was the only bet I actually placed, mostly on Baffert's history.

I will have to disagree on Saintly Look, he reminds me a lot of EasyFromTheGetGo last year. Great line moving into Feb, but went nowhere from there. I'm fully on board with the logic around not going faster than 6 as a 2 yr old, but I think you MUST have went faster than 6 by the end of Feb if memory serves. Unless Badge ran a negative number, I don't think SL moved forward off his previous 6s.

From memory, the only time a backward move has actaully turned into something profitable on derby day was TGulch, Monarchos, and Invisible Ink(who got robbed by not having his objection upheld, OK that was a joke). They all had backward moves off a number 3 or lower. If you are going backward off a 6, it doesn't look good.