Re: Scariest non-values in the Derby Future Pool (835 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: February 18, 2003 01:29PM
my KD futures betting career ended after I made a large bet on Street Cry a few years ago, but here is what I think of the board:
1. A T - no
2. Atswhatimtalkinabout - AP Indy horse is one of my top contenders, but 28-1 a bit low off just one maiden win.
3. Badge of Silver - the real deal. Ronny Werner really cranks them up..... I just think this one is peaking too early. 11-1 too low for me.
4. Domestic Dispute - very nice pedigree. 19-1 sounds fair.
5. Empire Maker - nice horse.... 12-1 doesn't cover the risk however.
6. Funny Cide - just took a look at his pedigree, and even though Distorted Humor was a sprinter, he gets some stamina from his female family. 93-1 not a bad stab, not for me though.
7. Indy Dancer - one of my early top contenders... looked awful on Sunday. I have not given up on him yet, but 18-1 just too low.
8. Kafwain - pedigree questionable, but this long striding colt will be tough. too many question marks to justify 12-1 though.
9. Lion Tamer - Pletcher calls him one of his best ever. I wouldn't be surprised if this one sets a track record or two before he is done. the 13.5 final eighth on Saturday, however, didn't give me a lot of confidence that this one wants to go ten furlongs. looks a lot like Tabor's Matty G horse from last year..... 20-1 too low.
10. Man Among Men - should run forever... looks like a top five candidate to me. 29-1 looks OK.
11. Ministers Wild Cat - one of my top early contenders. I didn't like the way he drifted in the stretch while coming home in 26 seconds up at GG, but I expect improvement. 24-1 is fair.
12. Offlee Wild - needs to show a lot more.
34-1 too short.
13. Ozzie Cat - 50-1 sounds fair... for the Ill Derby.
14. Peace Rules - nice turf horse... 66-1 too low on dirt.
15. Saintly Look - seems to have the pedigree to go far, but his last quarter was slow in the Lecomte, and he was horrible on Sunday. no thanks.
16. Seattle Hoofer - looks low on class. I think this one can improve, but 42-1 not enough.
17. Senor Swinger - plenty of question marks, but 43-1 is very tempting.
18. Siberland - for Cal bred fans only (but I think those fans are getting a great price at 115-1).
19. Sky Mesa - looks just like Harlan's Holiday to me. no thanks at 12-1.
20. Ten Cents - 34-1 a bit low... don't you think??
21. Toccet - Borislow pulls the old bad shins trick. OK, I give him credit for fooling the futures players, but 12-1 still too low for me.
22. Trust N Luck - very nice horse, but I think the competition down here in Florida has been on the weak side. Until he proves he can rate a bit, I will need more than 19-1.
23. Whywhywhy - whywhywhy? why is he on this list?
24. Field - the three year old class looks pretty tough at this stage, but a lot of things can happen between now and May. If the stars start to falter, we could see Storm Flag Flying and Hold That Tiger in the mix very quickly, and they are the two best three year olds. Composure looks fast enough, and may have Bailey if she runs. Colita looks OK. Godolphin and Tabor have another ten or so very well bred colts. 2.2-1 is awful short, but if I were to make a bet, I would use the field along with one or two others.