Catalin's comments on Toccett brings up the question of which of the pool entrants were the best plays against. In other words, they took a lot of money but you are not very worried about their winning the Derby.

Here are my top 4:

Toccett - 2 fast 2 early 2 often at 2. Also, being rushed after an injury. I think he is a great bet against. Looks like this year's version of AP Valentine or Anees or Favorite Trick or Lemon Drop Kid...

Sky Mesa - Similar to Toccett but not as many fast 2yo races and not as rushed after the injury and he has a better trainer. Still a good bet against.

Kafwain - He is fast and he has the right trainer but he was 2 fast 2 early 2 often at 2 and now he is 2 fast 2 early at 3. I am not as confident about betting against him as I am the other 2 but those fast races are bound to take their toll pretty soon. Also, his breeding is suspect for the Derby and cutting back to 7 furlongs in his last race after having run three races over 1 mile did not make much sense to me. Then again, I have not trained any Derby winners either...

Trust N Luck - He looks like a prototypical need-the-lead type that will fold when the pace gets hotter and the distances get longer. He also has run 2 fast 2 early. This year's version of Booklet. You have a few of these types that win some early TC preps every year.

Any other opinions similar or to the contrary?

Chris

P.S. Came across this interesting tidbit regarding Badge of Silver. May be old news to some of you. "Badge Of Silver won his debut last April at Keeneland by nine lengths. But he came out of the race with a cracked cannon bone, which required a surgically implanted screw. The screw removed, he returned to competition in January, easily winning a sprint at Fair Grounds."