Re: HANA Pool Party Sat R8 Canterbury --TG Sheets (1216 Views)
Posted by: tomath2o
Date: May 22, 2009 12:55PM
Thanks from all of us in the Pool Party.
I am a newbie to TG, and have a question about the Thoro-Pattern which is unclear in the documentation.
For example, the rail horse Darby Lee in this race has this line:
Turf 5 and up Mar-Jul: Prev Top 10^2, Pair-Off-Off (10^3, 14, 13)
Sts Top% Pair% Off% X%
248 **4 ****34 ****45 **17
Are the percentages listed at the end of the line (4 34 45 17) relative to
the Prev Top of 10^2 (which the documentation does seem to possibly indicate), or relative to the last race of 13?
That is, does the pattern indicate a 34% chance of pairing 13, or 10^2?
A 4% chance of a new Top beyond 13, or 10^2?
It can't be that the percentages are relative to 2 different races can it?
(e.g. Top% of 4 relative to 10^2, Pair% of 34 relative to 13)
The problem I am having is that it seems to make more sense that way the way the data look.
For example, if the percentages are all relative to 10^2 as the documentation suggests, then there seems to be a 34% probability of this horse pairing 10^2 according to the pattern; while its last 2 races were 14 and 13 - so that would require a 1^2 to 3^2 point jump...... is that what this pattern really indicates?
On the other hand, if they are relative to the last race 13, a probability of topping this number of only 4% does not seem plausible.