Your seven point difference in variants for the two 9/15 Belmont races turned out to be nearly perfect (as I suspected before the horses ran back). I think this time you might be stretching it a bit too far though. Going 7f over a heavy track, I can easily see My Cousin Matt beating Xtra Heat and the Carson City filly by seven or eight points. If the races were at 6f, I would understand your point, but if you look at the splits, the filly race just collapsed at the end. MCM ran the last 1/8 in an amazing :12.2, while Xtra Heat came home in :14.1. I do not think Xtra Heat will ever run a very fast 7f race over a heavy track. Going 6f on a quick surface, I would guess MCM is only a few points faster than Xtra Heat, but last Saturday, I have a suspicion that MCM ran much faster than Xtra Heat. Can you post the races again?