These numbers may not be completely accurate but they should at least be in the right ballpark. Out of a sample of over 2300 TG figures for "3yo stakes" horses taken prior to this year, there were only 3 instances in which a horse jumped to a new top of 7 or more points. That means that such a big jump for a stakes caliber 3yo is almost a "1 in a 1000" occurrence. I am not sure but I would also guess that none of those 3 big jumpers had a single-digit top prior to their big jump. (Note that a very fast horse is much less likely to make a big jump than is a slower horse.)

In the last week or so the following 3 horses literally became overnight "monsters" on the 3yo racing scene:

In the La Derby, Peace Rules jumped from a 7 to 0.5 for a 6.5-point jump

In the Fla Derby, Empire Maker jumped from a 6 to about a -2 (just my guess) for an 8-point jump

In the Swale Stakes, Midas Eyes jumped from an 8 to about a -4 (just my guess) for a 12-point jump

Roughly speaking, the odds of that randomly occurring are less than my chances of winning the lottery, making a hole in one, or getting my son to take out the trash without being told. I will let you draw your own conclusions.

You may be tempted to rationalize these big jumps with all sorts of potentially valid reasons such as surface changes or adding blinkers or trainer changes, etc. But keep in mind that there were probably all sorts of similar circumstances among those other 2300 3yo stakes horses...

"This is definitely not your father's Oldsmobile."

Chris

P.S. "In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted." Bertrand Russell