Great work guys.

Particularly you Chris.

I am not a speed figure calculation guy but the more I thought about Empire Maker the more I believe he ran great and Trust N Luck ran very poorly. At least compared to what Trust N Luck ran in his two prior races. Earlier on the card The Shug trained maiden won in a time of 1:51 and 3/5. He had run three consecutive 11’s beating a horse who had run a 13 and 12 in two races. The race won by Christines Outlaw was run in 1:51 flat. If we extrapolate Trust N Lucks race he was beaten 10 lengths in a race run in 1:49 so doesn’t that put him somewhere around what Christines Outlaw ran.

I think the neg 2 you believe that Empire Maker ran is a little too fast. I will say about a Neg ½ but that is a very unscientific guess on my part. Now the dilemma, when Monarchos ran his 0 in the Fla Derby he bounced in the Wood, when Point Given ran his 0 in the SA Derby he bounced in the Derby. Frankel will be very challenged over the next 12 weeks because he will be asking the horse to run four times.

Empire Maker has one big advantage over both those horses and it is that he started off much faster than both those right off the bat ( a 6) and Frankel has not pushed him. Look at the space between races and all the careful training he has performed. Monarchos was pushed extremely hard that spring and Point Given was trained by Baffert, need I say more. As in a bullet work every six days plus all the non-stop racing.

I want to make one final comment and I am really out on a limb on this one. Frankel may be a little different than your conventional American Triple Crown trainer, therefore we are being blindsided by these giant efforts his horses are producing. What I am referring to is in Europe don’t you often see some of the really exceptional ones break a maiden at 1 ½ miles then run in a Group 3 then in say the Epsom Derby. Didn’t the Godolphin horse a couple of years ago Lamptarra(??) win both the Epsom and the Arc in his 3YO year and the horse only had 4 races in his entire career!!! Frankel has trained a ton of Euro imports, he doesn’t come across as a know-it-all, as in he would listen and learn from others, and he knows that a horse who is as valuable as Empire Maker shouldn’t be put through the sausage grinder like Baffert does with his horses.

Any thoughts?