Sigh. One of the most consistently mind-boggling things about the whole TG vs. Ragozin dialogue, to me and others, is the insistence of some that the best way to prove one set of numbers better or worse is to look at these numbers over adverse or unusual track conditions-- sloppy tracks, tracks that are indeed drying out, etc. Virtually any horse player I know who has a clue knows that these off-track performances are *always* the ones you take least seriously in a horse's form cycle... Except, maybe, for 4.5 furlong races.

The latest example of "gotcha" is seemingly Buddy Gil. Not sure how Buddy looks on TG, but on Ragozin, he has a strong 2-yr-old line, developing beautifully down to the 9 level before throwing in two atrocious races in the slop.

Next out, he changes barn to the red-hot Mullins barn, who is clearly using superior feed to whatever Buddy was getting before. He sprints on the turf for the first time.

Could Buddy be a superior turf sprinter? Perhaps.
Is Mullins feeding him something new? Probably.

Buddy Gil runs a 1.5 sprinting on the turf, and then follows it up with a number MUCH more in line with previous efforts, a 5.25. Does that mean that Buddy Gil is bouncing to the moon on Saturday?

No, not in my book. We know how well Mullins is doing, and why would we make so much out of a turf sprint, when looking at this horse's line? Turf sprinting is such a quirky little part of the game, and with no other turf sprints on Buddy's resume, it's literally the single number on all of the Ragozin Santa Anita Derby PPs that means the least to me.

The 5+ that follows means a lot more. Within the context of the rest of his line, it's 4 points past his 2-yr-old top, and I think he has a decent shot of pairing it. I view his line neutrally. Not a horse I'd key, and from what I gather, not a horse most TG players would key either. Gotcha, indeed.

Though a bit little slower than a few others, Ocean Terrace's Ragozin line makes the most sense to me here. Looks like he's sitting on a breakthrough, and he should save ground. Very wide open race and I lean towards exacta boxes with MWC, Logician, the favorite (defensive use here), and perhaps, yes, Buddy Gil.

Last comment: To me, on Ragozin, Kafwain is a pretty serious bet against. Guess what? I know at least a couple Ragozin players who disagree completely, who think Baffert will get one more effort out of him... I love the confidence with which you guys pronounce Buddy's line as "negative" on Ragozin. More than one way to read these things, huh?