Tommy,

That's very close to my line for most of the horses and it would have taken just a tweak here or there in my estimation of probabilities to get the ML's to change from, say 9:1 to 18:1.

In brief: my ML method is just an excel spreadsheet where I estimate the % chance each horse has of running a given number (e.g., a 5% chance to run a 2, a 15% chance to run a 3, etc.) and then I have a formula that allocates and adds the percentages for each horse, taking into account the chance that the other horses have of running the same or faster number. If I think a horse's trip will be better or worse, I build that into my estimates. I only do this for the big races b/c it can be pretty time consuming but it definitely helps me take a look at my assumptions and then make sure that they are realistic.