dpatent,

I also use Excel and similar mechanics, although a bit more automated with fixed probability distributions based on several factors--top, post position and probable ground loss, last few races relative to top, weight, age. I was just surprised to see your line so similar. My initial concern after doing my spreadsheet was that 4-1 and 5-1 were pretty low odds--as pointed out by the other post. It is a problem I have noticed...my program gives my "favorites" a better chance than maybe they should have and dismisses other horses at ridiculously long odds. As you mentioned, a small tweak in assigning probabilities has a potentially huge effect on the longer horses.

I was just curious. Because I focus soley on overlays, I want my line as accurate as possible. I know I am on the right track focusing hard on a good morning line since I now have more good days than bad. Because I don't play so often and haven't had much extra time to do a proper statistical validation of my lines, I guess I was just looking for validation in some other way. It probably was coincidence, though, since you manually assign probabilities and I do not.

Thanks for your input.