CTC--

This is a pretty complicated question to begin with, but you have also added supposition into the equation-- that tracks are "jazzed", CD was on those days, and I "know" it when it happens.

We don't use par levels for variants (and by the way, you are right, they definitely would not be as reliable as they used to be for anyone who did use them, given the Cole Normans of the world). We used them only in the very beginning, to establish a rough data base to work with. Once you have a figure history of the horses running on a card to work with, there is no possible advantage to applying an average for the breed to each race, as opposed to looking at the individual horses who ran in it.

So when we do Derby day, or any day, we do just that-- we look at the histories of the horses who run that day, and come to a determination by them of how fast the track was that day-- the projection method. I don't necessarily have knowledge of what they did to the track on a given day, and even if I did, it wouldn't help me quantify the track speed-- if they "jazzed" it,is that worth 2 points? 4?

Which is not to say they have not "jazzed" the track-- it would be a pain in the butt, but I could go dig up the track speeds of all the Derbies, at least back to 92, when we "computerized" (before that everything was stored on paper). It is certainly possible they both speeded up the track AND horses are running faster independent of that.

It is also possible that as horses have gotten faster, the increased stress of running that fast has made them less sound. On top of which, as more racehorses are bought at auction (as opposed to home-bred), they become less sound-- sellers raise hot-house flowers to look good in the sales ring, and don't want to expose them to the rough and tumble yearlings used to get in the field.

As for the tracks themselves, what few conversations I have had with track superintendents about this subject lead my to believe that in general efforts have been made to make tracks safer, and this has resulted in slower times, if anything.



TGJB