I really can’t add too much to this topic because I’m not a speed figure calculation guy but I’m going to wade in. There are almost two questions here that are one in the same. Are the horses getting faster or are the “figures alone” just getting faster.

As far as the figures getting faster when Spend a Buck won the Derby in 1985 he was given a 3 1/4 . There really wasn’t any kind of a significant breakthrough until Monarchos in 2001, and we have seen numbers very close to his winning number in each of the last two years, though Empire Maker didn’t actually win the race but had the lowest number. Does anyone actually believe for fifteen years there were no improvements in feed and medicine to make the breed just a little faster. What was the World Record in the Mens 100 Meter sprint in 1985 and how many times has it been improved upon since then. How about Bob Beamons long jump, it stood for along time but now several people have jumped longer.

Regarding the track speed on Derby Day I do know this, when Spend a Buck won in 1985 the track was “very fast” but before you say ah-ha ‘fast track low number’—see. This Derby day or any Derby day you have seen in the last couple of years doesn’t even come close to the most "souped up" Derby Day ever and that was when Alysheba won in 1987. If you didn’t have the lead a ¼ of a mile out of the gate you simply couldn’t win. Every single race on the card for the entire day went like this. Chris McCarron, Alysheba’s rider, admitted later he became very worried because he and Van Berg had already set their strategy in the morning and it was to sit well off the pace. Wayne Lukas actually had his three horse entry of Capote, War and On the Line dueling head-to-head at the 3/8ths pole thinking the track would carry home from there. When McCarron saw Van Berg in the paddock before the race he was told “stick to the plan”. The rest as they say is history.

I do think there is one thing that is very palpable in all this and that is—The Three Year Olds are Getting Faster Sooner.

However one final note, As Supah Blitz pointed out any Speed Figure System that says the mighty Seattle Slew could barely outrun a turtle much less some of the turds in this years Derby has really got some flaws in it.



Post Edited (05-12-03 18:17)